Tony Atkinson
3 min readMar 21, 2023

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OK, there is a lot of truth here. It is true that Russia (and China for that matter), both have deep-seated cultural problems with democracy. This has led in Russia to an authoritarian government that sees no way other than conquest to expand it's influence.

However, the West is not free of blame. The collapse of the Soviet Uion led to a near-immediate reunification of Germany. Many people in France and Britain felt that this was undertaken far too soon and far too completely. It put a massive strain on the West German economy which in turn was felt throughout the EEC. It was also at German insistence that so many Eastern European countries were rushed into the EEC/EU, as German clients. More strain on EU finances, plus a flood of itinerant East European workers, protected by the free movement of labour rules.

This was the state of affairs that led to Brexit. Much has been written and said about the deleterious effects this has supposed to have had on the UK economy, but virtually nothing about how it will effect the EU. So far the EU has demanded that the UK continue to pay sums agreed prior to Brexit, but that won't last forever, and as the largest net contributor to EU funds, the UKs' absence will be felt all too soon. It is being felt already, as people in France riot about a modest increase in the retirement age. On top of this, the proposed European Defence Force, which was the means by which the EU intended to lever the US military, and thus American political influence, out of Europe, is now dead in the water. Such a force could only be effective if the highly-trained and effective UK armed forces were at its' core, and this will now not happen.

Seeing Europe in this state, and watvhing Ameroca replace a blustering buffoon with an apparently ineffectual elderly man, was all the encouragement Putin needed. He would roll over Ukraine and the West, desperate for gas and oil. would do nothing except bleat, or set up peace talks which would end with Putin getting what her wanted anyway

German over-extension had led to a dependence on Russia for gas and oil, which meant that when Putin seized the Crimea, they were unprepared to anything except splutter and make excuses for him. Ukraines' refusal to fold up has caused them further problems, because they had it give in to pressure from the rest of the West and stop importing Russian oil and gas. Which puts their economy in trouble. On the plus side for Germany is that the possible further expansion of Russia toward their borders has given them the excuse to expand their military they've been looking for since 1946. This has, of course, thrown the French into a panic.

Sooner or later, someone either in Europe or the US will realise that in order to stop Putin, we need to put boots on the ground in Ukraine. Then it will depend upon whether his commanders are prepared to go nuclear, or whether they will remove him and begin negotiations instead.

In that event, we will be left with a rearmed Germany in harsh economic circumstances. We all know what that leads to! I just hope Britain has the sense to stay out of it this time!

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Tony Atkinson
Tony Atkinson

Written by Tony Atkinson

Snapper-up of unconsidered trifles, walker of paths less travelled by. Writer of fanfiction. Player of games. argonaut57@gmail.com

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