I wouldn't be so sure. You're assuming people are rational, and they aren't.

The Brexit vote in the UK wasn't decided by economics, politics or any of the arguments put forward by either the Leave or Remain factions. It was about a deep distrust of foreigners (especially the French and Germans) and a bone-deep fear of losing our treasured independence and traditions of freedom. Not a rational decision, but not necessarily a wrong one, the EU can't last much longer.

In the US, there is a vast swathe of voters who also don't think about economics or politics when they vote. They 'think' (I use the word in its loosest possible sense), about abortion, guns, skin colour and sexual orientation - not necessarily in that order, and will vote for any candidate who talks about these issues in a way that suits their prejudices. But the US is much larger than the UK, and the current demographics show a correlation between certain views and geographical locations. If the 'wrong' people get into power in Washington and try to force the entire country into their preferred mould, there will be anger. Perhaps enough anger for a grassroots secessionist movement that will split the country in some fashion. And there will be no thought for consequences.